Tidy time series & forecasting in R
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Background
Introduction to tsibbles
Time series graphics
Transformations
Seasonality and trends
Time series features
Introduction to forecasting
Exponential smoothing
ARIMA models
Dynamic regression
Hierarchical forecasting
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Lab Session 20
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Hierarchical forecasting
15:30-17:00
Date
July 12, 2023
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Lab sessions
Lab Session 20
Prepare aggregations of the PBS data by Concession, Type, and ATC1.
Use forecast reconciliation with the PBS data, using ETS, ARIMA and SNAIVE models, applied to all but the last 3 years of data.
Which type of model works best?
Does the reconciliation improve the forecast accuracy?
Why doesn’t the reconciliation make any difference to the SNAIVE forecasts?