Dynamic regression

14:15-15:00

Date

July 12, 2023

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Lab sessions

Lab Session 18

Repeat the daily electricity example, but instead of using a quadratic function of temperature, use a piecewise linear function with the “knot” around 20 degrees Celsius (use predictors Temperature & Temp2). How can you optimize the choice of knot?

The data can be created as follows.

vic_elec_daily <- vic_elec |>
  filter(year(Time) == 2014) |>
  index_by(Date = date(Time)) |>
  summarise(
    Demand = sum(Demand)/1e3,
    Temperature = max(Temperature),
    Holiday = any(Holiday)
  ) |>
  mutate(
    Temp2 = I(pmax(Temperature-20,0)),
    Day_Type = case_when(
      Holiday ~ "Holiday",
      wday(Date) %in% 2:6 ~ "Weekday",
      TRUE ~ "Weekend"
    )
  )

Lab Session 19

Repeat Lab Session 18 but using all available data, and handling the annual seasonality using Fourier terms.